End of the Year and the Beginning of the New American Century
By Eric Schmidt and Ylli Bajraktari
In this special end-of-year edition of our newsletter, Dr. Eric Schmidt joins Ylli Bajraktari to emphasize the importance of technological advancement, particularly in artificial intelligence, to counter China's growing influence. It argues that the US must actively maintain its global leadership in the 21st century, and paints a positive vision for our shared future.
Next week, we will launch a brand new series entitled Transition Memos to the President. Follow along on our Substack and YouTube Channel for high-impact, subject-specific memos for a new administration.
End of the Year and the Beginning of the New American Century
The 20th century was defined by American leadership. As Henry Luce boldly proclaimed, it was "The American Century," a time when this nation’s values and ingenuity shaped a world order that prioritized liberty, innovation, and progress. Today, we find ourselves at a similar crossroads, one that demands the same clarity of purpose and boldness of vision that propelled America to global leadership in the first place.
The challenge is clear: Can America sustain its leadership in the face of unprecedented technological transformation, geopolitical competition, and rapid societal change? The answer is not just yes—it must be yes. But achieving this requires more than nostalgia for the past; it demands forward-thinking strategies, decisive action, and a renewed understanding of the forces shaping the 21st century.
History offers lessons for moments like this. In the 1950s, facing the existential threat of nuclear war and a fierce rivalry with the Soviet Union, leaders like Henry Kissinger helped craft the strategies that defined the Cold War. As National Security Advisor and later Secretary of State, Kissinger pioneered the concept of nuclear deterrence and forged pathways for dialogue with adversaries. His ability to balance strength with diplomacy provided the United States with long-term stability and a strategic edge.
The anxieties of the mid-20th century also sparked an era of transformation. Breakthroughs in aviation, nuclear energy, and telecommunications didn’t just create new industries; they redefined the balance of power and laid the groundwork for decades of American dominance. Today, we stand on the precipice of another revolution, one driven by artificial intelligence, quantum computing, biotechnology, and new energy pathways like fusion. These technologies aren’t just advancing industries—they’re reshaping the very structure of global power.
Technology as the New Battlefield
The technological revolution we are experiencing is inseparable from geopolitics. The United States is not competing in a vacuum; it is competing against a determined and capable rival in China. Beijing has made it clear: it seeks to dominate the technologies of the future, from artificial intelligence and advanced computing to biotechnology and quantum encryption. Its strategy is systematic, leveraging state-driven investments to achieve leadership and exporting these innovations globally to extend its influence.
China’s track record in areas like electric vehicles, 5G, and advanced manufacturing demonstrates its capacity to achieve its ambitions. But the implications of Chinese dominance in these emerging fields are far more significant. Imagine a world where authoritarian norms dictate the use of AI, where surveillance technologies erode personal freedoms globally, and where democratic nations are dependent on Beijing-controlled infrastructure for critical technologies.
Henry Kissinger, reflecting on the rise of artificial intelligence in his later years, compared its strategic implications to those of nuclear weapons. He understood that leadership isn’t just about addressing the immediate—it’s about shaping the future. The United States must heed this wisdom, recognizing that technological leadership is not optional. It’s an imperative for national security, economic strength, and the preservation of democratic values.
The New Frontlines of Warfare
Nowhere is the convergence of technology and competition more visible than on the modern battlefield. The war in Ukraine provides a stark illustration of how warfare is being transformed. Precision drones, AI-driven capabilities, and cyberattacks have redefined the rules of engagement. Those working alongside Ukrainians understand better than anyone how rapidly these changes are occurring—and how catastrophic it would be to fail to adapt.
Warfare today is as much about algorithms and data as it is about soldiers and weapons. Nations that fail to recognize this shift risk being left vulnerable, not only in the context of war but in their broader national security. The conflict in Ukraine is not just a regional crisis; it is a harbinger of the future, where the pace of technological change will determine strategic success or failure.
2025 and the Race to AGI
Among the transformative technologies emerging today, none holds greater promise—or greater risk—than Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). AGI represents a paradigm shift, offering the potential to solve problems, innovate, and reason at levels comparable to human intelligence—or even beyond it.
While the United States currently leads in AI, the recent release of a new model from China last week demonstrates that this lead is tenuous. The race to AGI is underway, and the decisions made in the next four years will determine who achieves this milestone. Leadership in AGI is about more than technological advantage; it is about values. Will this technology serve as a tool for democratic progress, or will it be harnessed to enforce authoritarian control?
A national AGI initiative, led by the White House, is essential. This initiative must unify government, industry, and academia around a shared vision of progress. It is a model we have seen succeed before, from the Manhattan Project to the Apollo Program to Operation Warp Speed. By aligning resources and talent, the United States can drive AGI development in ways that advance humanity while securing its leadership.
This effort requires partnerships. The private sector cannot succeed without government investment in critical infrastructure like energy and cybersecurity. Conversely, the government relies on private-sector expertise and innovation. Structured collaboration—such as an access for energy framework—can ensure that both sectors thrive while advancing national interests.
The alternative is a world where an authoritarian regime controls the most transformative technology ever created. Such an outcome would upend the global balance of power and threaten the democratic principles we hold dear.
A Renewed Vision for the American Century
Henry Luce’s vision of the American Century was not merely about technological or economic dominance—it was about values. It was about a world shaped by freedom, progress, and the belief that innovation could improve lives. That vision is not outdated; it is more relevant than ever.
The American Century is not over—it is being renewed. But renewal requires action. It demands investment in education, a focus on alliances, and leadership in the technologies that will shape the future. By embracing these principles and acting decisively, America can ensure that the 21st century remains one defined by peace, progress, and prosperity for all.
Let's use 2025 to jumpstart the American dream and lead the way towards a renewed American Century.