The Algorithmic Edge: SCSP Wrapped Day 2 Recap
Welcome to the second installment of SCSP Wrapped. In this special end-of-year review, the SCSP team—hosted by Senior Advisor for Intelligence William Usher—sat down to discuss the “Algorithmic Edge.” From the changing character of warfare to the integration of AI in the Intelligence Community (IC), the conversation covered the geostrategic trends driving our adoption of emerging technologies.
Here are the key takeaways from our reports, workforce initiatives, and predictions for 2026.
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Strategic Review: Offset-X Evolved
Strategic reality has shifted significantly since our initial Offset-X report in 2022. Driven by a coalescing “Axis of Disruptors,” rapid technological changes post-ChatGPT, and lessons learned from conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, we released Offset-X Evolved.
The report argues that the U.S. must pursue a new offset strategy to counter the quantitative strengths of our adversaries. This strategy relies on a new triad:
Information Advantage: Leveraging dense sensor networks.
Decision Advantage: Utilizing AI to process information faster than the adversary.
Lethal Advantage: Deploying autonomy to deliver effects.
To achieve this, the panel emphasized the need for a Joint Warfare Innovation Entity within the Department of Defense—empowered with dedicated budget and acquisition authorities to rapidly prototype and iterate on evolving technologies.
Transforming Intelligence
The panel highlighted two major reports aimed at modernizing the Intelligence Community:
AI for Strategic Warning: This report explores how AI can help analysts forecast geopolitical events. It outlines a three-phase evolution: improving data foundations (including synthetic data), connecting disparate models, and eventually moving toward an integrated platform as we approach AGI.
The Digital Case Officer: A look at integrating AI into Human Intelligence (HUMINT). The report details how AI can assist in targeting by cutting through massive datasets and utilizing generative AI for interactions, while establishing strict ethical guidelines and governance to ensure “human-machine teaming” is effective and aligned with U.S. values.
The Future of Work: A Partnership with Coursera
SCSP continues to advocate for an “AI-fluent” public sector workforce. To help busy professionals bridge the gap between theory and practice, we highlighted our strategic partnership with Coursera.
This year, we launched accessible, short-form coursework:
AI for National Security: Focused on practical applications for public sector missions.
AI + AGI National Security Micro-credentials: A deeper dive into the theory and future of AGI.
Coming Soon: New coursework focused on the future of work will be released in the new year.
Predictions for 2026
To close out the year, the panel offered their predictions on the trends, threats, and opportunities we will face by 2026:
Cognitive Warfare: The cognitive domain will likely emerge as a recognized “sixth domain” of warfare, with a focus on the nexus between AI and neuroscience.
Adversarial AI: We expect more sophisticated attacks on AI infrastructure, necessitating a focus on “defense in depth” for national security AI.
AI Companions: The rise of digital companions poses a new counterintelligence threat, serving as potential vectors for intelligence gathering and influence operations by adversaries.
Military Force Structure: Following the private sector’s lead, the military will begin to seriously re-evaluate its force structure in the age of AI.
Tech Sector Shift: The industry may shift focus from purely pushing the frontier toward efficiency, scalability, and profitability.
What predictions do you have for 2026? Let us know in the comments below!
Your December prediction that AI companions would emerge as a counterintelligence threat vector has aged faster than anyone anticipated.
By November 2025, two of the top ten AI apps in the Apple App Store already had documented ties to Chinese state-adjacent companies — engineered with precisely the inquisitive, sympathetic, always-available profile your team identified as the threat signature.
What your Wrapped framing correctly established as a 2026 risk is already an operational present-tense reality, not a forecast. The governance gap you identify between adversarial AI deployment and democratic oversight frameworks is the exact fault line I’ve been mapping from the HUMINT doctrine perspective — the capability is deployed, the binding accountability structures are not yet written.
I invite you to write a deep analysis on this if you’re interested.