The Building Blocks of an AI Axis?
I’m Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. In this edition of our newsletter, we explore the AI connections between the new authoritarian world of China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea. By “authoritarian,” we mean single-party, unchecked forms of power. Geostrategic changes like cooperation between these players are happening at the same time that technology power in the form of AI is taking shape. This newsletter addresses the intersection between these two trends.
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The Building Blocks of an AI Axis?
China-Russia: A Deepening Tech Alliance
China and Russia are forging a powerful AI partnership, cemented by their 2022 "no limits" agreement and reaffirmed in early 2025. While the specifics are often kept under wraps, their collaboration is clearly on an upward trajectory.
Following an AI conference in late 2024, Russia's leadership instructed Sberbank, a major state-owned bank, to team up with China on AI research and development, including the launch of a joint international AI journal. The head of the Shanghai Artificial Intelligence Research Institute echoed this commitment to stronger ties. Furthermore, Putin proposed a BRICS AI Alliance Network, signaling a desire to expand AI cooperation beyond just their bilateral relationship.
Corporate giants like Huawei are playing a crucial role, rapidly expanding their presence in Russia and securing deals with telecom provider MTS to develop 5G and AI infrastructure. As far back as 2019, Huawei had already tripled its R&D staff in Russia, established new research facilities, and trained tens of thousands of Russian engineers, facilitating a significant transfer of knowledge and expertise.
Their collaboration extends into sensitive areas like defense and surveillance. In February 2024, officials from both countries met in Beijing to discuss military applications of AI. They are also conducting joint military exercises and reportedly co-developing AI-driven autonomous weapons.
Financially, the Russia–China Investment Fund is channeling capital into startups, focusing on AI and semiconductor ventures in China and energy and biotech in Russia. A prime example is Biren Technology, a Chinese AI chip company that has attracted significant investment to develop GPUs that are intended to rival those of NVIDIA.
Key Takeaway: The China-Russia AI partnership is multi-domain, overcoming historical differences and, particularly as it relates to AI, spans research, corporate collaboration, and sensitive areas like defense.
China- Iran: Leveraging Tech for Influence
Iran's reliance on China is significant, with China being its largest trading partner and primary oil customer. Their cooperation deepened with the signing of a 25-year Comprehensive Strategic Partnership in 2021, estimated to be worth a staggering $400 billion. In exchange for discounted Iranian oil, China agreed to transfer digital surveillance technology and assist in the development of "smart cities." This agreement includes collaboration on 5G infrastructure, with Iran actively adopting Chinese AI-powered monitoring systems and internet control methods.
This partnership has had tangible effects on the ground. During Iran's 2022 protests, authorities ramped up their use of Chinese-style AI facial recognition technology to identify demonstrators. Reports suggest that Iran has installed a massive network of 15 million surveillance cameras, with data being transmitted to control centers in both Tehran and China. The agreement also outlines future joint military exercises and collaborative weapons development, with some suspecting China of supplying satellite technology to enhance Iran's ballistic missile program.
Beyond security, the two nations are fostering academic collaboration in AI research and talent development. Iran's Allameh Tabataba'i University established a China Study Center to strengthen these ties, and Iranian scholars frequently attend AI conferences in China. China also hosts Iranian students in robotics and AI programs, further solidifying their technological connections.
Key Takeaway: China's AI cooperation with Iran is primarily focused on surveillance technology and infrastructure development accompanied with growing academic ties.
China- North Korea: Academic Exchanges and Potential Military Influence
The most notable AI connections between China and North Korea lie in the academic sphere. Despite UN sanctions, North Korean researchers maintain collaborations with Chinese scholars, particularly in AI research. Many joint research papers focus on areas like machine learning, robotics, and computer vision. While these collaborations offer North Korea indirect access to AI advancements, there's limited documented evidence of direct technology transfers.
Officially, China adheres to international sanctions and export controls, meaning it doesn't directly export advanced AI technology to North Korea. However, North Korea's military has shown increasing interest in autonomous systems, including AI-powered drones and vehicles, raising questions about potential Chinese influence. Some analysts have pointed to design similarities, such as the landing gear on North Korea's Saebyeol-4 and Saebyeol-9 UAVs, which bear a striking resemblance to that of China's J-7 fighter jet. While this might suggest some level of technological overlap, concrete proof of direct AI collaboration between the two countries remains elusive.
Key Takeaway: China's AI engagement with North Korea is primarily through academic channels, with potential indirect influence on North Korea's military AI development.
Russia- North Korea: A Budding Partnership in Tech and Space
In June 2024, Putin and Kim Jong Un signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement, committing to cooperation in science and technology, among other areas. Both nations emphasize secrecy in their collaboration, stating that certain programs "should not become the subject of public disclosure."
One visible outcome was a joint IT and innovation exhibition in Pyongyang in October 2024. Russian and North Korean companies and research units showcased technologies ranging from robotics and encrypted communication tools to commercial and digital equipment like smartphones and drones. Despite UN sanctions prohibiting specialized training in advanced computer sciences for North Korean nationals, the event featured various advanced technologies.
Former UN Panel of Experts member Furukawa suggests that North Korean IT workers likely operate covertly under foreign identities, applying their acquired expertise to domestic AI, VR, and facial recognition development. As North Korea aims to build its own AI industry, Russia has emerged as a key partner. Moscow has pledged to assist Pyongyang in developing and launching satellites for space research, a process that likely involves training North Korean engineers in satellite control algorithms and AI-driven image processing.
Key Takeaway: In the backdrop of closer ties including North Korean troop deployments to Ukraine, Russia is also becoming an increasingly important AI partner for North Korea, particularly in areas like space technology and potentially cyber capabilities.
Russia- Iran: Intensifying Military and Financial AI Cooperation
Moscow and Tehran have significantly ramped up their AI cooperation in recent years, a key aspect of their broader strategic alignment. In March 2024, their governments formalized this with an AI partnership agreement designed to facilitate joint research, AI-powered defense systems, and industrial automation projects. As part of this agreement, Russian experts have been conducting advanced AI training programs and robotics development courses in Iran, equipping Iranian engineers with expertise in machine learning, computer vision, and autonomous systems.
In early 2025, Russia and Iran further strengthened their ties with a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement, enhancing cooperation across multiple sectors, including politics, security, trade, transport, and energy.
In the military domain, their AI cooperation has intensified notably. Russia has deployed Iranian drones in Ukraine that feature AI-enhanced target recognition and autonomous navigation, improving their precision strike capabilities against critical infrastructure. While the Kremlin hasn't explicitly confirmed receiving Iranian missiles, it acknowledges that bilateral cooperation extends to "the most sensitive areas," a phrase widely interpreted as encompassing joint weapons development and AI-driven defense applications.
Beyond defense, Russia and Iran have integrated their respective payment systems, MIR and Shetab, to enable cross-border transactions and reduce their reliance on Western financial infrastructure. This integration is part of a larger strategy to enhance financial cooperation and economic resilience between the two nations. Both countries are also exploring AI-driven blockchain analytics and risk assessment models to help them navigate sanctions while securing financial autonomy. This partnership reflects their broader strategy of leveraging AI to build a resilient, sanction-proof financial network.
Key Takeaway: Russia and Iran are engaged in significant AI cooperation, particularly in military applications and the development of a joint financial infrastructure.
Iran- North Korea: Shared Cyber Tactics and Missile Ambitions
While direct artificial intelligence collaboration between Iran and North Korea appears limited, their long-standing partnership in advanced technologies, particularly missile development, suggests potential intersections in AI applications.
Since the 1980s, North Korea has been a crucial supplier of missile technology to Iran. This collaboration reportedly resumed in 2021, with UN reports indicating illicit missile cooperation between the two nations. Such exchanges likely involve scientific interactions that now incorporate AI for flight algorithms and targeting systems, potentially laying the groundwork for deeper technical cooperation in AI-driven defense applications.
Both Tehran and Pyongyang have demonstrated significant capabilities in cyber warfare. While direct collaboration remains unconfirmed, there's evidence of parallel adoption of AI in their cyber operations. Both North Korean and Iranian hackers are exploiting AI-generated phishing emails and deepfake profiles to infiltrate systems. This convergence in tactics suggests a shared understanding of AI's potential in cyber espionage, possibly facilitated through indirect channels or alliances.
Unlike other nation pairs, Iran and North Korea lack significant student exchanges or joint AI research centers. While explicit AI collaboration between them is not well-documented, their shared interests and existing technological partnerships indicate a potential, perhaps covert, convergence in AI applications.
Key Takeaway: While direct AI collaboration is unclear, Iran and North Korea's existing technological partnership in missiles and their parallel use of AI in cyber warfare suggest potential indirect knowledge transfer.
Joint Collaboration: Bi-lateral, Not Quite an AI Axis Yet
Despite the growing AI ties among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea, there's no formal four-way alliance governing their collaboration. Instead, AI partnerships remain primarily bilateral and driven by specific interests, shaped by strategic needs rather than a unified tech bloc. China often sits at the center, providing much of the underlying technology and know-how.
China and Russia are leading the charge in AI research, defense applications, and corporate collaboration. Russia and Iran are focusing on military AI, financial technology, and automation. Iran and North Korea, while lacking direct AI agreements, share cyber warfare tactics and missile technology, hinting at indirect AI knowledge transfer. Meanwhile, China's AI engagement with Iran and North Korea appears more selective and influenced by sanctions.
A significant factor to consider is that much of the AI expertise and technological advancement originates from China. This positions Beijing as a dominant player within these partnerships, potentially granting it leverage over its counterparts.
While these nations might rhetorically align against perceived Western AI dominance, their cooperation is currently fragmented, relying on bilateral channels for talent, tools, and technology. They might not be an AI bloc in the traditional sense just yet, but their increasingly interwoven partnerships could very well lay the foundation for deeper, more structured collaboration in the future.