World Order at a Tipping Point: A Tehran Security Conference
Hello, I’m Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. In this edition of 2-2-2, as many offer readouts of the 2024 Munich Security Conference, we provide a contrasting “red team” perspective, putting ourselves in the shoes of Iranian government officials providing a readout from a hypothetical, competing security conference - Tehran Security Conference - that brought together representatives of various authoritarian regimes. Special thanks to Sir Alex Younger for inspiring this idea at the Munich Security Conference as well as David Lin and Ryan Carpenter for sharpening this comparative analysis.
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What if? A Tehran Security Conference
Disclaimer: This is a fictional internal memo told from the perspective of Iranian government officials reporting to the Supreme Leader of Iran Ali Khamenei, detailing takeaways from a hypothetical conference – dubbed the Tehran Security Conference – hosted in Iran for security and government experts from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, with a number of government representatives from the so-called Global South in attendance as observers.
Your Excellency,
We just concluded another highly successful Tehran Security Conference (TSC). The TSC brought together all the like-minded nations, chiefly Russia, North Korea, China, and us, or as the CIA and MI6 have dubbed us – the “Axis of Disruptors.” Our Islamic Republic, of course, is a proud, founding member of this Axis of Resistance, as we call it. The conference offered an opportunity for our nations and for those who sympathize with us - united in our disdain for and active opposition to centuries of U.S. and Western arrogance, aggression, and interference – to express our solidarity, showcase our triumphs against the fragility and dysfunction of democratic systems, and coordinate - still very tacitly - our actions. In this regard, the Tehran Security Conference was very successful; moreover, we were able to publicly project an outcome that was even more successful in appearance than in practice. Behind the scenes and in private, however, some of our allies and partners were nervous, wondering about their own stability and the strength of our friendship in a post-American world.
Democracies in Disarray
We are the masters of information space. Between our disinformation platforms and Western government missteps, we have found the democracies’ strategic underbelly. We can continue to capitalize off the inherent freedom and chaos within democracies, and further sow discord and friction between the Americans and their allies and partners. At the Tehran Security Conference, our four capitals agreed to exacerbate the rifts that are playing out in democracies across the globe today including to:
Amplify Political Polarization: Democracies are increasingly dysfunctional due to hyper-partisanship, the breakdown of social discourse, and an unwillingness to compromise. The end result is for their self-confidence to reach rock bottom.
Widen Social Fractures and Protests: Social and economic unrest in democracies are fatal flaws of systems that encourage dissent and promise opportunities. Examples include widespread protests against government policies, income disparities, or social justice issues.
Promote Gridlock and Bureaucratic Inefficiency: Decisive action is stifled in democracies due to various checks-and-balances that can often lead to gridlock in their institutions. They emphasize the slow and cumbersome legislative processes often mired in debate and opposing viewpoints. We can capitalize off of the complacency and inaction of our Western foes.
Encourage the Rise of Populism: Concerns about a declining commitment to democracy are stoked by emphasizing the surge of populist leaders and movements. They point to how populists challenge norms, degrade trust in institutions, and deepen internal divides.
Spotlight Corruption and Loss of Public Trust: Finally, the Tehran conference participants suggested eagerly promoting narratives around high-profile corruption cases, self-serving leaders, and waning public confidence in the electoral and judicial processes of democracies.
These are all internal weaknesses of democracies that we can continue to spotlight and exaggerate with the purpose of undermining their confidence and their bonds. But there are also external opportunities that we can exploit - in Central Asia, the Balkans, Red Sea, South China Sea, Taiwan, and the Korean Peninsula. Stretching America and its allies thin, testing their credibility in gray spaces, finding the seams in their alliances, and undermining the hope of their partners in their umbrella of protection and prosperity can all - in combination - lead to a geopolitical earthquake that shatters the so-called “rules-based order.”
Private Conundrum: Cracks in the Facade
While there is much opportunity to be exploited in the potential unraveling of the U.S.-led world order, there are serious signs of resilience in the democratic system and significant domestic challenges within our own countries that we must guard against.
Europe's Resolve & NATO's Revival: We have found the unity against Russia's war in Ukraine and NATO's resurgence as unsettling and unexpected. Recent polls show increased support for NATO memberships across Europe, and many countries have ramped up defense spending. There's an unspoken concern that escalation in the Ukrainian conflict might force pan-European military mobilization, posing a serious strategic problem for us. Our Russian interlocutors, who historically like to appear (overly) confident, are clearly concerned about potential domestic backlash over wartime failures, and further economic strains - on the eve of the elections - could further weaken the regime's authority. They are clearly not taking any chances when it comes to elections, and fear opposition leaders even when they have them under locks.
Economic Disparity: The combined economic might of NATO countries vastly overshadows Russia. In 2022, for example, NATO's total GDP was approximately $47 trillion compared to Russia's GDP of $2.24 trillion. This stark economic contrast highlights the significant resources NATO can mobilize in support of Ukraine should the conflict continue. While GDP alone isn't a direct measure of military capability, this economic discrepancy underscores the long-term resilience NATO possesses.
Moscow's Insecurities: The possibility of defeat in Ukraine is an existential threat to Putin, which explains in part why he may be prepared to overpay for the Shahid drones we have sold to them. Additionally, Russia's tarnished military reputation has undermined its image as a competent fighting force, deeply hurting its credibility to wield military influence. Russia appears increasingly reliant on our drones, North Korean munitions, and Chinese parts as their own stockpiles cannot keep up with attrition. Internally, a shrinking population, ongoing military losses, and the strain of sanctions raise the risk of domestic instability and unrest, even among Putin's supporters.
Economic Strain: Declining revenue from oil and gas exports, along with mounting war costs, directly harm Russia's economy. Inflation hits ordinary Russians, and shortages in consumer goods are becoming more apparent. These struggles undermine faith in Putin's promise of stability.
Technology Shortfall: Sanctions on vital technology (like semiconductors) hinder Russia's ability to rebuild its military hardware, heavily exposed in Ukraine. It also weakens long-term industrial plans, fueling internal anxiety about economic competitiveness. Moscow may win the war in Ukraine, but in the near-term it will be a weak shadow of its one time self.
Dissatisfaction & Dissent: The combination of military failures, economic woes, and the ongoing mobilization risk eroding even core support for Putin. While repression remains harsh, there is a growing undercurrent of skepticism detectable in Russia, a threat the regime takes very seriously. In areas far from Moscow, but closer to our borders, there is no love lost for Putin and his regime.
Indo-Pacific Pushback: Our Beijing interlocutors have expressed a growing concern over security pacts like the Quad and AUKUS, the tilt back towards America in the Philippines, and the growing closeness between Japan and South Korea. Chinese leaders perceive these moves as deliberate attempts by the West and American allies and partners in the region to contain China's regional ambitions. The sanctions imposed on Russia serve as a chilling reminder of the potential economic consequences China could face should it pursue military action against Taiwan, particularly as all attempts to replace the U.S. dollar as the world’s reserve currency have so far failed. The actions of American and Western technology companies supporting Ukraine in the conflict have reinforced to Beijing (and to us) the dangers of overreliance on American technology and, more broadly, not keeping up technologically. Furthermore, recent restrictions on semiconductor exports to China reveal that America may have found a surgical way to hobble Beijing’s ambitions, and threaten to curtail China's technological advancement.
Lagging Economy: Despite its rhetorical focus on external rivals, China cannot ignore the confluence of three, brewing domestic crises. First, it’s the lingering domestic fallout from its stringent zero-COVID policy and the chaotic exit. Second, it’s the real estate crisis which is having ripple effects more broadly. And, third, it’s the growing debt which further limits the freedom of action for the CCP - which is reluctant to support the Chinese consumer to begin with. Economic growth has long been heralded as the Chinese Communist Party’s chief accomplishment and source of its political legitimacy. Economic headwinds and lingering public frustration now pose potential challenges to the regime. The potential for dissent within its heavily policed state remains a constant concern for Chinese leadership.
North Korea's Sidelining: Pyongyang officials have signaled concern that their ability to provoke is overshadowed by Ukraine (and the Middle East), leading to reduced leverage, growing irrelevance, and continued misery. Evidence suggests postponed missile tests in recent months, possibly pointing to their decreased utility in attracting global attention. A stalling China and exhausted Russia present a significant problem for Pyongyang. The Kim regime also worries how persistent economic hardship and a lack of diplomatic wins could fuel instability within their isolated nation. We must prevent Kim’s grievances and unpredictable actions from becoming a catalyst for unity in the West.
Iranian Domestic Enemies and Out-of-Control Proxies: While we may be the most stable member of the Axis, we did face some questions at the TSC from our like-minded partners. They asked about our inflation, unemployment, currency, and ability to weather the impact of international sanctions. Some wondered about the prospects of unrest returning to our streets - similar to what the Mossad, the CIA, and MI6 had engineered in the aftermath of Mahsa Amini’s death. They are clearly confident in our ability to handle political opposition, but wondered about our ability to manage economic discontent.
Regionally, they gave us a lot of credit for Hamas’ attack against Israel on October 7 and attempts to derail further progress on the so-called Abraham Accord, our ability to selectively threaten commerce in the Red Sea, and our sustained pressure against U.S. presence in Iraq and Syria. But Russia, China, and North Korea are all too happy to fight America to the last Iranian. And as our region appears in turmoil again, America is reengaged militarily, Israel is exceptionally alert to deal with any threats, and our proxies and surrogates occasionally act on their own agenda, we must be careful not to invite actions that could threaten the stability of our Islamic Republic. Russia will have little capacity to assist us, China will have even less political will to do so, and North Korea will not be able to reach us. We need to avoid the lure or trap of leading the Axis of Disruptors.
Our Focus: Damage Control & Collaboration
These excitements and anxieties formed the hallway conversations and closed door sessions of the Tehran Conference. Our focus should be on exacerbating existing tensions within the West. We continue to work closely with Moscow, Beijing, and Pyongyang to develop strategies to prop up Russia's war effort, mitigate Western sanctions, and drive a wedge between Europe and America. While precise pre-war and post-war trade figures are hard to obtain, analysts agree there will be a significant shift in trade flows and growing desire on the part of the West to de-risk their economies from imports of our energy products and key manufactured goods. As we lose market access to the West, increased trade cooperation between us is an absolute priority. Specific focus will be on circumventing sanctions on technology, oil and gas sales, and procuring military supplies. Doubling down on disinformation campaigns - our most effective and cheap weapon - is sure to amplify further division within democracies.
The AI Dilemma
Our conference took place amidst heightened global discourse surrounding AI, a disruptive force evident at the recent World Governments Summit in Abu Dhabi. This technology, and others like it, featured prominently in our own discussions. The setbacks experienced during the development of COVID-19 vaccines, and the unsettling advancements in Generative AI (GenAI) by American companies, expose the potential for widening technological disparities that could undermine established governing structures in our country.
GenAI presents a particularly insidious threat. Its ability to circumvent information control and foster unfettered exchange of ideas is a direct challenge to the order we strive to maintain. Suppressing such technology becomes imperative, yet doing so risks holding us back further and exposing our own technological limitations compared to more open societies. Our regimes must carefully navigate this dilemma, recognizing both the risks posed by GenAI and the strategic disadvantages of stifling its development.
The Takeaway
At the end of the day, the Tehran Security Conference proved to be a successful convening of the so-called Axis of Disrupters, united in our opposition to American hegemony and Western encroachment on our sovereignty. Each of our regimes have deep-seated challenges, but nothing can shake the united front we share in resisting the democratic ideologies that undermine our legitimacy.
Disclaimer: As mentioned at the start of this newsletter, our purpose here is to provide a contrasting “red-team” perspective to the themes arising at this year’s Munich Security Conference. The above suggests a readout from a hypothetical conference held in Tehran consisting of security and government leaders from Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.
In case you missed it!
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Joint European Disruptive Initiative (JEDI) Director Andre Loesekrug-Pietri and SCSP President Ylli Bajraktari penned an opinion piece – Technology is the New Battleground: Democracies Must Forge Unity – in Les Echos.
SCSP President & CEO Ylli Bajraktari shares “The US and Australia need generative AI to give their forces a vital edge” in ASPI’s (Australian Strategic Policy Institute) The Strategist.