This is excellent, but...you might consider writing a separate post, playing the devil's advocate by laying out the many reasons AGI might *not* happen within the next 20 years, to say nothing of ASI. Beginning with definitional limitations (such as sliding semantics scales), and including other factors such as expected limits to scaling laws, inability to move from R&D into scaled production, economic & energy constraints, potential public backlash, unintended societal consequences, global disparities between the AI haves and have-nots, and so on.
Thank you, Jack. Dialogue question: short of AGI, do you hold that a more-general version of AI will *not* be invented? If an intermediate step needs definition, "more-general" would be between now and (Level 4) AGI in the linked Deepmind AGI paper called "Position".
This is excellent, but...you might consider writing a separate post, playing the devil's advocate by laying out the many reasons AGI might *not* happen within the next 20 years, to say nothing of ASI. Beginning with definitional limitations (such as sliding semantics scales), and including other factors such as expected limits to scaling laws, inability to move from R&D into scaled production, economic & energy constraints, potential public backlash, unintended societal consequences, global disparities between the AI haves and have-nots, and so on.
Thank you, Jack. Dialogue question: short of AGI, do you hold that a more-general version of AI will *not* be invented? If an intermediate step needs definition, "more-general" would be between now and (Level 4) AGI in the linked Deepmind AGI paper called "Position".