The Future Awaits: Navigating Geopolitics, Technology, and U.S.-China Relations in 2024
A reflection on 2023.
Hello, I’m Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. In our last newsletter of the year, I provide my thoughts on 2024 and the key issues this year related to national security that were impacted by the role of technology. Linked here is a longer memo from our team that provides a thorough analysis of 2023 key trends and 2024 predictions, as well as a short highlight video below of some of the team’s accomplishments since January.
The Future Awaits: Navigating Geopolitics, Technology, and U.S.-China Relations in 2024
As we reflect upon the pivotal year of 2023, a year rife with geopolitical turmoil and remarkable technological advancements, it becomes increasingly apparent that this decade will be defined by a landscape of uncertainty and transformation. The conflict in Ukraine, escalating tensions in the Middle East, and fluctuating dynamics in U.S.-China relations have collectively set a dramatic stage for the years ahead. We see a troubling emergence and convergence of an “axis of disruptors” across the geopolitical landscape. Simultaneously, the rise of large language models has unveiled a glimpse into a future brimming with technological marvels and challenges.
Three "Future Frames" beckon with technology as a backdrop, demanding our attention:
1. The Great Game Redux: A World Order Reshuffled?
In the heart of Europe, the Ukrainian tragedy continues to play out – its echoes resonating across the continent, shaping the contours of alliances and threatening the fragile unity of the European project. This conflict, far from being a localized issue, has emerged as a crucible for modern military innovation, reshaping our understanding of warfare in the 21st century. Ukraine remains a technological arms race, creating the need for constant innovation in dynamic warfare, in what Eric, our Chair, has called the first “networked war”. SCSP has written on the technological lessons from the conflict. To claw back the initiative, drones, and lots of them, will be an indispensable asset. Not mere flying robots, they are integrated into a networked battle strategy that leverages agility against brute force. Equipping Ukrainian forces with these tools doesn’t just help Ukraine to win; it provides us with the opportunity to learn from their experience and prepare ourselves for the battlefields of tomorrow. By focussing on providing relevant capabilities at scale we can both help Ukraine regain the initiative in 2024 – and prepare our techno-economic base for the future of warfighting.
But while Europe has a conflict at its doorstep, a chilling trend has emerged in 2023: the rise of an "axis of disruptors." China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran, despite their differences, have found a perverse synergy. They collaborate, sharing technology and tactics to chip away at the established order. In doing so, they challenge us and attempt to lay the groundwork for the next decade.
Forget grand invasions and heroic last stands. The next decade won't be decided in fiery battlefields alone, but in a quieter struggle: a game of inches played in the shadows. Think more “thousand cuts” strategy and less about massed offensives.
This isn't about brute force; it's about erosion. Imagine a world where a thousand tiny disruptions, each seemingly insignificant, cumulatively weaken the fabric of stability. A cyber attack here, a disinformation campaign there, a nuclear threat just clear enough to keep everyone on edge. Disruptive powers employ a strategy of 'thousand cuts,' meticulously exploiting societal vulnerabilities to erode trust, unity, and technological advantage. Their aim is not a frontal assault, but a slow, deliberate weakening, aiming to bleed resources, fracture alliances, diminish national cohesion — and ultimately create a ripe environment for their own strategic gains.
While we obsess over political differences at home and among our allies and partners, the axis of disruptors quietly vacuums off crucial technologies, builds economic leverage, and sows distrust within our alliances. They operate in the gray space, where the lines between war and peace are blurred, and the battlefield is as likely to be a social media feed as a trench line.
This is the challenge we face – not just defending against immediate threats, but building resilience against a world where the very ground beneath our feet is constantly shifting.
2. Beyond Risk, Embracing Innovation: Illuminating the Future with Technology
While 2023 has been dominated by warnings about the risks of AI, particularly in the case of large language models, 2024 must mark a turning point. We've witnessed mind-boggling breakthroughs in these models, with applications that range from medical diagnosis to climate modeling. Two camps are emerging in this AI landscape: the open-source and the proprietary, and next year we could see new limits and potential for both types of models. The U.S., having cemented its innovation leadership through the COVID vaccine invention and GenAI, cannot afford to rest on its laurels.
In 2024, the discourse must shift. We must move beyond risk mitigation and embrace the future, focusing on getting ahead in applications and discoveries that will revolutionize industries and create entirely new ones. Remember, China's models are catching up fast. Government, industry, and the general public must work together to move beyond the fear factor, and start building a future with AI, not against it. Our Congress needs to lead the way with the governance framework as well as resources needed to stay ahead.
As a new interface for software, GenAI has set off a flywheel that is driving advances in AI itself, converging with other tech sectors, and that will ultimately accelerate and transform the very process of innovation in other key technology sectors.
Imagine biotech, no longer limited by trial and error, but rather guided by AI-fueled simulations of cellular processes, crafting personalized therapies with exact precision. Quantum computing, once an unreachable goal, now with the power of algorithms of GenAI, could finally unlock computational power beyond human imagination.
Fusion energy, the elusive holy grail of clean power, might finally be within reach, with AI optimizing reactors and predicting instabilities before they flicker, paving the way for a cleaner future. Beyond these giants, AI threads its way through advanced networks, smart manufacturing, and countless other sectors, optimizing processes, and accelerating the pace of progress. In all of these sectors there are emerging innovations - led by American companies - that will take us to the next level.
3. US-China Relations: Tech Titans in a Cold War Dance?
Across the Pacific, a tech competition rages, not with bombs and bullets, but with silicon chips and algorithms. The United States and China, locked in a new kind of cold war, clash on two vital fronts: the hardware battlefield of semiconductors and AI, and the software realm of global platforms like TikTok and Shein.
On the hardware front, Beijing's ambition is clear: domestic dominance and circumvention of Western restrictions. China is heavily investing in tech, with the simpler goal of achieving self-sufficiency and independence. Covert attempts at stealing tech secrets have been identified as an “unprecedented threat,” and everywhere you look, factories are being built with promises of "Made in China" by 2025. In this large-scale tech battle, every tiny computer chip matters. The hardware battle will be a marathon, not a sprint. China has the advantage of a seemingly bottomless war chest and a vast domestic market. The United States, meanwhile, possesses the superior technological know-how needed to ensure wins, global market access, and a network of established allies which could provide a significant advantage if its efforts and policies are coordinated.
But the war doesn't end at the chip factory’s doorstep. On the software front, the battleground shifts to the digital realm, where Chinese platforms like TikTok, Temu, and Shein have become global behemoths. These sleek, user-friendly apps have captivated billions, raising concerns that go far beyond catchy tunes and trendy clothes. This software war is not just about market share; it's about fundamental values and control of the digital future. We stand at a crossroads, where the next chapter of the internet is being written. Will it be a tale of open access and democratic participation or a dystopian narrative of state control and information manipulation? The answer lies in our collective ability to forge a path forward, one that harnesses the power of technology for good while safeguarding the principles that underpin a free and open society.
Agility and Adaption To Outmaneuver Disruptors
Let me close on a positive note, despite the uncertainties, one thing continues to be true: the American spirit of innovation remains undimmed. Our democracy, with its messy freedom and boundless creativity, is our greatest asset. As we navigate this complex future, let us remember that America's strength lies not in clinging to past successes, but in embracing the unknown with boldness and ingenuity.
The future won't be about stopping every sting or winning every skirmish. It will be defined by building resilience and crafting defenses that hold firm even when the ground beneath them trembles. It will be about recognizing the new rules of the game: where agility and adaptation trump brute force, and where unity and trust become the strongest weapons. This reality, not some impending epic clash, will be the true test of the decades ahead.
SCSP has big plans for 2024! Please join us on May 7-8, for the AI Expo for National Competitiveness, the first of its kind in Washington, D.C., in coordination with the second Ash Carter Exchange on Innovation and National Security.
For more information on how to exhibit, sponsor, or attend visit our website.
There is no competition with China they use slave labor and are engaging in genocide. Anything short of a complete economic decoupling is a violation of human rights. They are also a bad actor in most other facets, currency manipulation, intellectual property theft, strategic subsidies to destroy US corporations. Stop listening to Janet Yellen, she has never worked against slave labor before, and clearly neither have you.
It is now time to raise tariffs higher on China and move towards a complete decoupling of the economies, this is what happens when we have a president do a trade deal with communists. China has been engaged in economic warfare against the US since 1999 when Bill Clinton signed into law PNTR with China and sent congresses duty and right to negotiate and manage trade deals to the WTO. The WTO does not have the interest of US citizens at heart.
Those claiming tariffs hurt consumers are simply incorrect. If democrats enjoy playing the long game like they claim to and not going for short term fixes they should realize that every time they buy a product from China they are essentially taking a loan out against their own future. At some point the deficit and the trade deficits have to be paid down. Sending money to China is essentially a down payment on a long term loan against US economic security in the future. A few too many people who claim to be educated read the globalization economics section in US college texts books I suppose.