The Current U.S. Approach to Fusion
Hello, I’m Ylli Bajraktari, CEO of the Special Competitive Studies Project. In today’s edition of our newsletter, we announce our final members of the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy, and SCSP’s Pieter Garicano, Nina Badger, and Nicholas Furst discuss the U.S. government’s current approach to fusion. We have previously explored the PRC’s fusion strategy, as well as international fusion efforts.
Upcoming Events in Washington, D.C.
September 26 - SCSP’s AI+ Energy Summit in Washington, D.C. will convene the nation’s top policymakers, technologists, and energy industry leaders to discuss ideas and solutions that will enable America to maintain its competitive edge at the nexus of AI and energy. We recently announced Page Crahan, who will be demonstrating how Tapestry, part of Google’s Moonshot Factory, is applying AI to build a more resilient, flexible, and cleaner electrical grid. Stay tuned for additional panel announcements today.
October 7 - 9 - NVIDIA hosts an AI Summit in Washington, D.C. to explore the latest AI breakthroughs that are transforming the public sector. The summit is expected to include over 40 virtual sessions covering advancements in generative AI, remote sensing, cybersecurity, robotics, industrial digitalization, and more.
October 11 - 13 - George Mason University hosts its sixth annual hackathon, Patriot Hacks, sponsored by SCSP.
October 23 - SCSP’s second AI+ summit, the AI+ Robotics Summit will take place in Washington, D.C. Details on how to join will be coming soon.
November 15 - SCSP x AGI House Hackathon: SCSP is partnering with the Bay Area AI hacker house, AGI House, to host an AI Agents for Gov Hackathon at SCSP’s office in DC! Come create the future of AI agents to solve important real-world challenges. Stay tuned for more details!
The Current U.S. Approach to Fusion
This month will mark a significant milestone as SCSP hosts the inaugural meeting of the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy. In light of this moment, we want to examine the U.S. government’s current approach to fusion energy investment and development.
Today, the Department of Energy (DOE) serves as the cornerstone of government funding for fusion energy research and development. Through its Fusion Energy Sciences (FES) program, the DOE allocates resources provided by Congress for fusion: $763 million in 2023, increasing to $790 million in 2024. This budget is distributed across several major priorities, each playing a distinct role in the DOE’s vision for fusion technology.
The largest budget item is the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) project, a multinational reactor based in France aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of fusion energy on a large scale. In 2023 and 2024, ITER received approximately $240 million from the United States.
While ITER represents a large chunk of the funding, progress has been slow. Originally budgeted at $6.3 billion, costs have since been estimated to exceed $22 billion. Its design, conceived decades ago, no longer represents the most promising path to scaled fusion energy.
The second biggest portion of the budget is dedicated to operating and maintaining existing U.S. tokamak facilities: DIII-D and NSTX-U. DIII-D received around $130 million this year, while NSTX-U receives about $100 million.
DIII-D at General Atomics in San Diego focuses on long-pulse tokamak research and ITER support, while NSTX-U at Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory explores the spherical tokamak concept. Like ITER, while these facilities nominally provide scientific insights, their direct contribution to commercialization efforts is increasingly contested. Neither are necessarily on the most promising path to a fusion pilot plant.
Historically, the FES program has emphasized magnetic confinement fusion — e.g., programs like ITER, DIII-D, and NSTX-U — which uses magnets to hold the plasma needed for fusion reactions steadily over time. However, in recent years, there has been an expansion of efforts in inertial confinement fusion, in which lasers are used to rapidly compress fuel and fusion is achieved in short bursts. The 2022 achievement of fusion ignition by the National Ignition Facility, an ICF project, has prompted an explosion of government interest, as well as public and private funding.
While ICF research has traditionally been centered on national security applications, the Department of Energy is now expanding its support for ICF as a potential commercial energy source. In the most recent appropriations, the Inertial Fusion Energy Program saw a significant boost to $20 million in FY24. This increase highlights the growing interest in this alternative approach to fusion.
The FES portfolio extends beyond core projects to include several specialized programs. Addressing fusion energy’s remaining pathway-agnostic technical hurdles is becoming a growing focus of U.S. efforts. Federal funding is now directed towards key challenges like plasma confinement, materials science, and fuel cycle management.
The Matter in Extreme Conditions (MEC) program investigates material behavior under intense fusion-relevant conditions, providing crucial data for reactor design and safety. Meanwhile, the Materials Plasma Exposure eXperiment (MPEX) focuses on critical plasma-material interactions in fusion environments, addressing a key challenge in developing long-lasting fusion reactors.
Additionally, the Fusion Prototypic Neutron Source (FPNS) aims to develop a neutron source for testing fusion reactor materials and components. This is an essential step in validating designs for future power plants.
Fortunately, recent appropriations reflect a growing awareness of the need to bridge the gap between scientific research and commercial viability. DOE recently announced the FIRE Centers, which will do the critical testing start-ups cannot do in-house, allocating $45 million to support critical research and testing capabilities essential for commercial fusion development.
These facilities will play a crucial role in addressing key challenges such as blanket design, fuel cycle optimization, and materials testing — all essential for developing practical fusion energy systems.
The most promising yet underfunded aspect of the FES program is the Milestone-Based Fusion Development Program. Modeled after NASA’s successful Commercial Orbital Transportation Services (COTS) program, it aims to de-risk private investment by providing financial support to companies that achieve specific technical milestones. However, only $46 million has been spent out of the $415 million authorized to date. This represents a significant opportunity for increased impact in the fusion energy sector.
In addition to the DOE Office of Science’s efforts, the DOE’s Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) has its own fusion programs. ARPA-E’s approach complements the FES division by focusing more on applied research and commercialization. Unlike the Office of Science, ARPA-E typically requires cost-sharing among project partners. They have four active programs contributing to the fusion effort: ALPHA (for lower-cost pathways), Breakthroughs Enabling Thermonuclear-Fusion (BETHE), CHADWICK (for the first wall of a fusion power plant), and GAMOW (a joint program with FES for market-aligned fusion).
The last significant recipient of federal funding for fusion research is the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA). Congress appropriated $690 million for the NNSA in FY24 to fund programs like the National Ignition Facility (NIF) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, where scientists study ICF as part of its Stockpile Research, Technology, and Engineering portfolio. (In 2022, the NIF created a record-setting fusion reaction that produced more energy than it consumed, and has replicated the result several times since.)
Moving Fusion From the Lab to the Grid
The current period marks a critical juncture for fusion energy investment. China currently outspends the United States by a factor of two-to-one. Fortunately, in recent years, U.S. fusion energy companies have demonstrated remarkable success in attracting substantial private investment, signaling growing confidence in fusion technology’s commercial potential.
Several firms have continued to secure significant funding since 2023. For example, start-up fusion company, Xcimer, raised $100 million in a Series A round. Industry giants like TAE Technologies and Commonwealth Fusion Systems have amassed over $1 billion and $2 billion in funding, respectively. This influx of private capital not only accelerates research and development timelines but also brings fresh approaches to longstanding challenges in fusion science.
Regulation is the final component in the United States’ current approach to fusion. While the issue of how the United States regulates energy, and specifically fusion energy, is a complicated one worthy of its own newsletter, a key change is worth previewing. The recently enacted, bipartisan ADVANCE Act signified a major shift in the government’s approach. By classifying fusion byproducts under a more flexible framework, more akin to that used for particle accelerators than fission reactors, the ADVANCE Act streamlined the pathway for licensing fusion plants. The new strategy reflects a recognition of fusion’s inherent safety advantages over fission.
As global energy demands continue to rise and the urgency of addressing climate change intensifies, fusion energy’s potential to provide clean, reliable, and abundant power has never been more relevant. The AI power crunch, which we discussed in our recent piece, underscores the need for advanced energy technologies like fusion to support our increasingly energy-intensive technological landscape.
To maintain its leadership position in fusion energy and capitalize on this momentum, the United States must adopt a more strategic approach to scaling fusion. This is precisely the mandate of the Commission on the Scaling of Fusion Energy: to provide guidance and steer the future of fusion energy development as it moves from lab to grid.
Comprising ten commissioners and three co-chairs, the Commission brings together experts from nuclear engineering, policy, technology, and the energy industry. The group includes leaders from private fusion companies, academia, and the grid. Co-chaired by Senators Maria Cantwell (D-WA) and Jim Risch (R-ID), along with SCSP President Ylli Bajraktari, the Commission will begin its 12-month tenure with an inaugural meeting next week on September 25 in Washington, D.C.
As fusion energy progresses towards commercialization, it is imperative that government strategy complements and amplifies private sector efforts. The DOE’s investment in fusion energy represents a critical commitment to developing transformative energy solutions. The Commission will work to make sure all of it serves scaling as soon as possible.
Yes we need to rebalance fusion strategy towards more promising avenues. But for perspective, Metaculus estimates a median date of 2051 to supply *0.1%* of the world's energy by fusion, with a very long tail on that estimate. Meanwhile solar continues to accelerate.
https://www.metaculus.com/questions/9464/nuclear-fusion-power-01-of-global-energy/
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2024/06/20/the-exponential-growth-of-solar-power-will-change-the-world